Overview
- Researchers project that filings now on the books could push the satellite count to roughly 560,000 by the late 2030s, up from about 15,000 today.
- Modeling indicates Hubble would see satellite streaks in around 40% of images, while SPHEREx, ARRAKIHS and China’s Xuntian would approach 96%, with average tracks per exposure of 2.14, 5.64, 69 and 92, respectively.
- Archival checks confirm the trend is already visible, with more than 4% of recent Hubble images showing satellite trails.
- Exposure to interference depends on mission design and location, with low-altitude or wide-field telescopes most affected and far-flung observatories at L2 such as JWST and Roman effectively out of reach.
- The authors urge coordination on orbit-layering, reflectivity limits and operator data sharing, while cautioning that current ground-protection practices can worsen space impacts and that lowering orbits brings lifetime and possible ozone trade-offs; NASA says many Hubble streaks are faint and removable.