Overview

• Fresh analysis by RFE/RL with Estonian partners of Planet Labs imagery shows rapid construction near Pavlovka, about 60 kilometers south of Minsk, across more than two square kilometers with 13 ammunition depots, three large hangars and extensive new roads.
• The site sits on former Soviet nuclear infrastructure and has been redeveloped after military sappers cleared 2,800 munitions in spring 2024, yet authorities have issued no public documentation or acknowledgment.
• A separate new facility on the outskirts of Gomel, where work began in late 2023, is also assessed by journalists as a future military base.
• The International Strategic Action Network for Security cautions that imagery remains insufficient to conclude the presence of nuclear weapons or Oreshnik systems, though the possibility cannot be ruled out.
• Belarusian officials have trailed Oreshnik’s arrival as soon as this year with drills tied to Zapad‑2025 set for September 12–16, while Russian state media tout rapid strike claims such as an eight‑minute flight to the UK that independent analysts treat as messaging.