Overview
- Independent CSIS satellite analysis published Wednesday documents a clear 2026 surge in construction, road work and reinforcement at the Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz.
- IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed the agency can observe activity from orbit but inspectors have never entered the facility, leaving internal operations unverified.
- President Donald Trump has publicly warned he may strike Pickaxe, and U.S. military planners retain operational options for the site that were considered earlier this summer.
- U.S. records show a late‑February emergency contract to ready a subterranean test range at White Sands and the Pentagon is developing a next‑generation penetrator because Pickaxe’s granite depth exceeds current bunker‑buster reach.
- Analysts caution the facility does not yet appear capable of enrichment work, but the combination of visible construction, U.S. threats and escalating attacks on shipping keeps the risk of wider regional and economic escalation high.