Overview
- The seasonal period runs from Dec. 24 through Jan. 5, covering the last five trading days of December and the first two of January.
- Since mid‑20th‑century studies, the S&P 500 has averaged about a 1.2%–1.3% gain over this span and has been positive roughly 76% of the time.
- The pattern turned negative in both 2023 and 2024, a stretch that overlapped with unusually heavy return contributions from the S&P 500’s largest stocks.
- Strategas notes the top 10 stocks again represent an outsized share of 2025 gains, raising concern that concentration could blunt this year’s effect.
- Recent coverage highlights softer jobs data and policy uncertainty as headwinds, while advisors favor staying invested and using ETFs or replacement holdings for tax‑loss harvesting.