Overview
- The seven‑session window began Dec. 24 and runs through Jan. 5, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq little changed Friday but still slightly higher versus Dec. 23.
- Since the start of this year’s window the S&P 500 is up about 0.2%–0.3%, keeping the seasonal pattern ‘alive’ after two straight misses.
- Historically the period posts gains about 80% of the time with an average 1.3% rise, and markets have never logged three negative Santa periods in a row.
- Analysts caution the signal has limits—2021’s rally preceded 2022’s bear market—and note elevated S&P 500 valuations near 30 times trailing earnings.
- Safe‑haven buying lifted gold to a record near $4,529 and silver to $77, with traders citing U.S. strikes in Nigeria and worries over potential 2026 rate cuts that futures currently price at two quarter‑point moves.