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Santa Claus Rally Kicks Off With New Records for S&P 500 and Dow

Strong growth and steady jobless claims have lowered market odds of a January rate cut.

Overview

  • The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,932.05 on the holiday‑shortened session, its 39th record of 2025, as the Dow also finished at an all‑time high.
  • The seasonal Santa Claus rally window began Dec. 24, covering the last five trading days of December and the first two of January.
  • Trading was thin, with volume roughly 50% below the past month’s average even as indexes advanced.
  • U.S. Q3 real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace and initial jobless claims fell to 214,000, trimming futures‑implied odds of a January 25 bp Fed cut to about 13%.
  • Gains continue to lean on mega‑cap tech leadership, even as advisor surveys show a rising share expecting a less healthy economy over the next year.