Overview
- SanDisk shares retreated about 13% on Wednesday, June 24, after the stock hit a 52-week high on June 22 and then moved lower with a broad memory‑chip selloff linked to a sharp Kospi drop and investor doubts.
- The company’s fundamentals remain strong as it reported a blowout Q3 with $5.95 billion in revenue and guided Q4 revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion with non‑GAAP EPS of $30 to $33.
- SanDisk disclosed that more than one‑third of its fiscal 2027 bit output is committed under multi‑year New Business Model contracts that Morgan Stanley says run at very high contracted gross margins near 80%.
- Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore and company executives argue AI inference needs—large key‑value caches and bigger model context windows—are pushing high‑performance NAND up the memory hierarchy and creating new direct pull demand that DRAM can’t meet.
- Analysts remain largely bullish but the stock trades at elevated multiples, and the memory industry’s 18–24 month fab lead times mean current tight supply can sustain prices short term while capacity additions or demand shifts could erase that premium, so investors will watch shipments, contract fills and pricing next.