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SanDisk’s 2025 Rally Faces a Test of NAND Cycle Endurance

The debate centers on whether tight NAND supply tied to AI can persist long enough to support today’s valuation.

Overview

  • Shares rose about 12% in November and are up roughly fivefold this year, with the stock recently trading near $210 to $220.
  • SanDisk beat expectations with $2.31 billion in revenue and $1.22 in adjusted EPS, and guided the next quarter to $2.55–$2.65 billion revenue and $3.00–$3.40 in adjusted EPS.
  • Bullish views point to AI-driven data center demand and supplier restraint, with calls for NAND undersupply into 2026 and a Bank of America price target of $300.
  • Bearish analyses highlight potential capacity additions at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron and margin pressure that could drive multiple compression toward $110–$120 per share.
  • The company’s pure-play NAND profile after its spin-off heightens both upside in a tight market and downside risks in enterprise SSDs as hyperscalers pursue semi-custom drives and lower-priced Chinese ODMs compete.