Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Sanctions Reshape Oil Trade as Tanker Rates Hit Five-Year Highs and India Cuts Russian Crude

Markets now price a potential 2026 supply surplus despite sanction-driven dislocations.

Overview

  • Very large crude carrier charter rates climbed to nearly $137,000 per day, a five-year peak and up 576% this year, as buyers shifted toward Middle Eastern and U.S. cargoes.
  • Indian refiners plan to slash Russian crude purchases in December to about 600,000–650,000 barrels per day, the lowest in three years, following banking curbs and a cutoff date for dealings with Rosneft and Lukoil.
  • Russia is offering Urals to Indian buyers at roughly $7 per barrel below Brent for December loadings arriving in January, with only a minority of available cargoes coming from non-sanctioned sellers.
  • Reuters calculations indicate Russia’s November oil-and-gas revenues may drop about 35% year over year due to weaker prices and a stronger ruble.
  • Oil benchmarks edged higher after a monthly low, with Brent near $62.75 and WTI around $58.19, as analysts highlight expectations for a 2026 supply surplus, including a Deutsche Bank forecast of at least 2 million barrels per day.