Overview
- Turkey’s SOCAR STAR refinery booked four December cargos from Iraq, Kazakhstan and other suppliers, cutting reliance on Russian crude by an estimated 77,000–129,000 barrels per day, while Tupras is increasing non‑Russian purchases and is expected to stop using Russian crude at one plant to preserve EU market access.
- Chinese buyers including Sinopec and PetroChina canceled Russian shipments, with Rystad estimating about 400,000 barrels per day of flows affected and ESPO prices slipping as sellers deepen discounts; Urals was quoted near $57.99 a barrel late last week.
- India’s response is mixed as IOC continues buying Russian barrels from non‑sanctioned sellers and Bharat Petroleum secures a 2‑million‑barrel Upper Zakum cargo, while U.S. crude shipments to India jumped to 568,000 barrels per day in October, the highest since March 2021.
- Market trackers report deeper discounts on Russian grades and greater use of intermediaries as buyers navigate compliance risks and contractual wind‑downs, with analysts expecting some near‑term tapering in direct Russian flows to India after Nov. 21.
- Ukrainian drone strikes and sanctions have reduced Russia’s refined‑product exports by roughly 500,000 barrels per day since July, lifting global refining margins and driving a 61% quarterly jump in refining profits at majors including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies.