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Sanctions Drive India’s Russian Oil Imports to Three-Year Low as Trade Reroutes

Refiners pivot to intermediaries, with analysts forecasting a gradual early‑2026 rebound.

Overview

  • India’s Russian crude receipts in December are estimated at roughly 1.1–1.3 million barrels a day, down from 1.84 million in November and the lowest since late 2022, according to Kpler.
  • Rosneft and Lukoil’s share of Russian loadings bound for India slid to about 17% in December from 63% in November as direct deals were curtailed.
  • New conduits emerged with little-known traders such as Redwood Global Supply, Alghaf Marine, RusExport, Ethos Energy, Arcadia International, Rosewood Resources and Vistula Delta stepping in, many linked to the UAE.
  • Reliance paused purchases after the sanctions then resumed buying from non-blacklisted sellers, while other refiners cut intake and increased sourcing from the Middle East, West Africa and the Americas.
  • Urals delivered to India traded near a $6.50-per-barrel discount, about $4.50 narrower than before the sanctions, and December tallies may be revised as some tankers departed without declared discharge ports.