Overview
- Ship‑tracking shows Russia’s four‑week average seaborne crude exports fell to about 3.58 million b/d as of Nov. 2, roughly 190,000 b/d lower, with weekly export value down 27% to about $1.15 billion.
- Chinese state giants and private refiners have sharply reduced or paused purchases after U.S. sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil and subsidiaries, with Rystad estimating up to 400,000 b/d of flows affected.
- Refiners in India and Turkey have also held back, and reluctance to receive cargoes has pushed Russian crude in floating storage up about 8% since early September to more than 380 million barrels.
- Oil prices swung on supply and demand signals, with OPEC+ opting for a small December increase and a first‑quarter pause as a stronger dollar and risk‑off trading drove a drop followed by a modest rebound on Nov. 6.
- Russia has banned exports of technical sulfur until year‑end, which Ukrainian intelligence links to strains in its chemical sector, while Ukraine’s sanctions envoy says the new measures could cost the Kremlin up to $5.5 billion a month once broadly observed.