Overview
- Researchers say a likely Super El Niño combined with a Kelvin wave could produce exceptional waves and repeated erosion events that sharply increase near-term coastal damage risk.
- Early September storms already sent waves over San Clemente’s railroad and forced repeated track closures and emergency repairs, showing how vulnerable the rail corridor is to storm surge.
- Decades of human changes to sediment — including 1960s dredging for Dana Point harbor, upstream dams and protective seawalls — have reduced the natural supply and movement of sand and made beaches slower to recover.
- The coastal rail line that runs at the water’s edge supports heavy passenger service and roughly $1 billion in freight annually and has been shut for repairs multiple times since 2021, creating growing economic and mobility risks.
- Locals face mounting choices about shore protection, costly sand replenishment and managed retreat as short-term storm damage, wildfire losses and the longer trend of sea-level rise combine to make some areas unsustainable.