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Samvat 2082 Opens With Cautious Optimism as Brokerages Tout Earnings-Led Gains

Optimism centers on earnings recovery with upside limited by expensive valuations plus choppy foreign flows.

Overview

  • Motilal Oswal signals an earnings-driven phase, projecting Nifty profit growth to reaccelerate from FY26 into FY27 after a muted FY25.
  • Recent policy moves — RBI repo cuts of 100 bps, a 150 bps CRR reduction, income tax relief of about Rs 1 lakh crore and GST 2.0 — are cited as demand boosters.
  • Analysts highlight banking, pharmaceuticals and cement as likely winners, with domestic cyclicals and defence, manufacturing and digital themes also in focus.
  • Choice Institutional Equities released 15 high‑conviction picks spanning defence, premium consumption, technology and materials, positioning for steady compounding.
  • Targets vary, with Nomura’s Nifty view near 26,140 by March 2026 and Ajay Bagga’s more bullish Nifty 30,000 call, while warnings flag rich valuations, promoter selling and potential corrections.