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Salesforce Sees Record $1.25 Trillion Holiday E-Commerce as AI Drives Purchases

U.S. online sales are forecast to rise 2.1% on tighter household budgets.

Overview

  • Salesforce estimates AI recommendations and agent-assisted shopping will drive $263 billion in global online purchases, including $51 billion in the U.S.
  • Traffic originating from AI recommendations converts about 700% higher than social media referrals and 200% higher than other sources, according to Salesforce data.
  • Consumer use of AI is expanding, with 20% of U.S. shoppers using it in recent buying journeys, 57% using AI search while in stores, and 87% expressing trust in AI recommendations.
  • Retailers are expected to deploy more targeted promotions, with average discounts projected at 22% for the season and 29% during Cyber Week.
  • Salesforce cites growing consumer caution, with many delaying discretionary purchases or stocking up ahead of possible tariff-driven price increases, based on surveys of 5,500 people and signals from 1.5 billion shoppers across 89 countries.