Overview
- Ukraine’s General Staff estimates Russia’s cumulative personnel losses at about 1,216,930 as of January 9, with roughly 382–391 thousand recorded in 2025.
- Front‑line accounts and analysts describe a late‑2025 pivot to small‑group infiltration into Ukrainian rear areas, a change linked to rising casualties.
- Ukrainian defenses—dense minefields, yegoza barriers, persistent drone surveillance and strikes, artillery against staging points, and ground clearing—are credited with increasing Russian losses.
- Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reports Russia’s in‑theatre force has held near 710–712 thousand for months, and says Ukrainian drone units in December disabled about as many troops as Russia recruited, roughly 33 thousand.
- ISW estimates Russia captured about 4,669 km² in 2025, implying around 83 personnel losses per km², and experts caution Russian formations could contract in early 2026 without a broader mobilization.