Overview
- S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in December, the sharpest drop since March 2022, with output down for a tenth straight month and new orders falling for a seventh.
- Official data show growth in defense-linked sectors cooling in 2025, with computers, electronics and optics up 13.6% in January–October versus 27.9% in 2024, and metal products up 15.9% versus 31.6%.
- The lone bright spot remains “other transport equipment,” including tanks and drones, which grew 33.1% in 2025 compared with 34.2% in 2024.
- Chinese customs data indicate dual-use imports to Russia fell 3.7% year over year to $2.6 billion in January–November 2025 and were 14.4% below the same period in 2023.
- The central bank cut the key rate to 16.0% from 16.5% in December, and prosecutors moved to nationalize or expropriate defense supplier KIMP over alleged enrichment at the state’s expense.