Overview

• Ukrainian Air Force data analyzed by the Financial Times shows interception rates plunging from 37% in August to 6% in September despite fewer launches.
• A U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment says Ukraine has struggled to employ Patriots effectively because Russian missiles now change trajectory and maneuver near impact.
• The modifications reportedly affect Iskander-M and air-launched Kinzhal missiles, which veer off course, dive steeply, or execute sharp turns to foil interceptors.
• Ukraine’s Air Force reported four Iskander-M missiles launched on Oct. 1 evaded defenses, and officials say at least four drone manufacturing plants around Kyiv were struck over the summer, including an Aug. 28 attack that also damaged nearby EU and British Council offices.
• Ukraine is sharing Patriot engagement data with the Pentagon, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin for system updates that lag Russia’s evolving tactics, while interceptor deliveries have slowed and at least six Patriot batteries are in country with components for three more recently supplied by Germany and Norway.