Overview
- The 16-satellite Rassvet-3 batch launched on July 19 failed to reach or remain at intended operational altitudes, according to tracker analyses and US Space Force orbital data.
- Public tracking shows many second-batch satellites are orbiting at roughly 300–400 km, far below the program’s planned altitude, and at least two are already on decay trajectories toward re-entry.
- Only 12 of the first 32 Rassvet satellites have reached apparent long-term orbits so far, a roughly 37.5% early success rate that analysts say is well below expectations.
- Satellites placed at lower altitudes face higher atmospheric drag and use more fuel for station-keeping, which will cut their service lives and force Bureau 1440 to launch many more replacements.
- The failures raise near-term tactical limits on continuous battlefield internet for Russian forces, add pressure to limited Soyuz launch capacity, and occur as Ukraine pursues regulatory and strike measures that could further slow the program.