Overview
- The Finance Ministry, which released preliminary figures Thursday, reported a 4.6 trillion ruble January–March deficit that already tops the 2026 plan of 3.8 trillion.
- Spending reached 12.8 trillion rubles after early financing, and revenues fell to 8.3 trillion, down 8.2% from a year ago.
- Oil‑and‑gas receipts slid to 1.4 trillion rubles, down 45%, with RBC estimating a 569.7 billion ruble shortfall as higher oil prices have not yet reached the treasury.
- Attacks on the Ust‑Luga, Primorsk, and Novorossiysk export hubs disrupted flows, and BBC/CREA data show Baltic oil and fuel shipments fell about 53% from March 23 to 30 versus last year.
- Economists cited by Russian outlets warn of a protracted downturn and weaker household spending, noting reports of layoffs, plant closures, and sharp drops in output in several regions and sectors.