Overview

• Russian customs data show oil export revenues fell to $110.1 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year drop of $20.3 billion.
• Overall goods exports declined to $195.5 billion in January–June from $208.8 billion a year earlier, confirming broader trade weakness.
• Industry and Trade Minister Anton Alichanow cautioned that growth in commerce with China will moderate due to sanctions pressure and a saturated Russian market for Chinese goods.
• Policy moves and enforcement weighed on pricing and flows, with the EU announcing a lower oil price cap of $47.6 per barrel in July and the U.S. imposing tariffs that coincided with Indian refiners cutting Russian oil purchases by about 60% within two weeks.
• Domestic strains are building as growth slows to roughly 1% in early 2025, prompting proposals to cap prices on basic foods and other interventions to stabilize supplies.