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Russia’s Oil Flows Pivot to China as Turkey Overtakes India

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil triggered refinery pullbacks in India that reshaped December buyer rankings.

Overview

  • CREA’s December data show Russian crude shipments to China rose 23% month on month, driving an 11% increase in total exports.
  • India’s Russian crude intake fell 29% to the lowest level since the G7 price cap began, with total hydrocarbon imports down to €2.3 billion from €3.3 billion in November.
  • Turkey moved into second place among buyers of Russian fossil fuels, while China remained first, accounting for about 48% of export revenues from the top five buyers (~€6 billion).
  • Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery halved Russian crude purchases and state refiners cut around 15%, following OFAC actions; several firms paused or reduced purchases as Indian Oil continued sourcing from non‑sanctioned entities.
  • Russian LNG flows to Europe increased, with French purchases up 18% and Spanish up 27%, lifting LNG revenues 13% as crude export revenues fell 12%, even though EU law requires ending Russian LNG imports by year‑end.