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Russia’s Oil Cash Crunch Deepens as Revenues Slide Despite Steady Exports

Steeper Urals discounts coupled with a stronger ruble are eroding the budget value of each barrel.

Overview

  • Goldman Sachs estimates Russia’s oil export revenues in rubles have halved this year, falling from the equivalent of 7.6% of GDP to 3.7%.
  • After new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, their seaborne shipments dropped 42% to about 1.7 million barrels a day, yet total exports slipped only 100,000 barrels a day as flows were rerouted through smaller producers.
  • Russia’s Finance Ministry reported a 34% year-over-year decline in oil and gas tax revenues, underscoring the severity of the fiscal squeeze.
  • November oil and gas takings are estimated at about 520 billion rubles (roughly $6.6 billion), down around 35% from a year earlier, with year-to-date receipts near $102 billion, about 22% lower than 2024.
  • Urals crude traded about 23% below Brent in November, and together with softer Brent prices and costlier logistics, these discounts are cutting export earnings even as shipment volumes hold up.