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Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Seen Down 23% in September, Threatening 2026 Budget Plans

Lower prices and a stronger ruble are squeezing state receipts, prompting debate over a VAT increase.

Overview

  • Reuters-based calculations point to September energy revenues of about 592 billion rubles, with takings for the first nine months down 20.5% to 6.62 trillion rubles.
  • Oil and gas income provides up to a quarter of the federal budget and is a key funding source for the war in Ukraine, intensifying the fiscal risk.
  • Government-aligned sources say raising VAT from 20% to 22% is being discussed to plug the gap, but no decision has been taken.
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the budget draft is being prepared by the government, while President Vladimir Putin has urged productivity gains over broad tax hikes.
  • Finance Minister Anton Siluanov outlined plans to reinstate the budget rule with a gradual cut in the oil price threshold to $55 a barrel by 2030 to reduce volatility.