Overview
- Reuters based its projection on oil and gas output, refining rates, and sales data across domestic and export markets.
- The ruble strengthened more than 30% year-on-year in December, pushing the ruble-denominated tax reference price down by as much as 53% and compressing receipts.
- At roughly 420 billion rubles, the expected January intake would mark the lowest level since August 2020.
- Oil and gas typically provide about 25% of Russia’s federal budget, making fluctuations in prices and exchange rates highly consequential for revenues.
- Global price weakness and sanctions pressure have reshaped Russia’s trade, with the EU curbing imports toward a 2027 phase-out, the U.S. recently targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, and Moscow selling more to China and India at discounts.