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Russia’s Budget Gap Reaches 1.7% of GDP Through September as Spending Jumps

Officials say execution remains on the revised structural path despite cooling inflation restraining revenue growth.

Overview

  • The federal deficit totaled 3.787 trillion rubles for January–September 2025, equal to 1.7% of GDP, according to Finance Ministry materials.
  • The year‑to‑date shortfall is 4.365 trillion rubles wider than a year earlier, when the deficit stood at 578 billion rubles, or 0.3% of GDP.
  • Federal spending reached 30.725 trillion rubles over the period, up 19.5% year over year.
  • Total revenues rose 2.5% to 26.938 trillion rubles, with non‑oil‑and‑gas receipts up 13% from the prior year.
  • The government projects a full‑year deficit of 5.7 trillion rubles (2.6% of GDP) under amended 2025 parameters, with a structural primary balance targeted at 1.3% of GDP and execution described as consistent with structural‑deficit goals.