Russia’s 2025 Budget Gap Widens as Trade Surplus Narrows, Ukraine Projects $60 Billion Shortfall

Overview

• Russia’s federal budget showed a 4.19 trillion ruble deficit for January–October 2025, equal to 1.9% of GDP, with the Finance Ministry projecting a 5.7 trillion ruble shortfall, or 2.6% of GDP, for the full year.
• Total federal revenues in January–October rose 0.8% to 29.924 trillion rubles as non‑oil and gas receipts increased 11.3%, while oil and gas revenues fell 21.4% on lower average oil prices.
• Federal spending for the period reached 34.113 trillion rubles, up 15.4% year over year, outpacing revenue growth and deepening the deficit.
• Russia’s trade surplus for January–September 2025 declined 11.02% to $101.7 billion, with exports down $14.7 billion to $302.8 billion and imports down $2.1 billion to $201.1 billion, bringing total trade to $503.9 billion.
• Customs data show sharper export declines to Europe than to Asia and a shift in export composition, with mineral products at $168.7 billion down 14.3% and metals at $52.2 billion up 17.6%, while Ukraine’s Finance Ministry estimates an uncovered $60 billion budget gap for 2026–2027 including a $45 billion external financing need for 2026.