Overview

• The Ukrainian Navy reported that one of Russia’s Su-30SM multirole fighters lost contact southeast of Snake Island on August 14 and that debris later washed up on the water’s surface.
• Intercepted Russian radio traffic prompted a Black Sea Fleet search-and-rescue operation, but Ukrainian officials say the pilots remain unaccounted for.
• Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels and military bloggers have indirectly confirmed the loss and claimed both crew members died, while the Russian Ministry of Defense has stayed silent.
• Open-source intelligence group Oryx now counts this as the 13th Su-30SM downed since February 2022, underscoring cumulative attrition in Russia’s naval aviation.
• Monitoring groups indicate the jet likely operated from Saki or Belbek airfields in occupied Crimea, highlighting the heightened risks for Russian fighters over the northwestern Black Sea.