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Russian Fuel Squeeze Deepens After Ukrainian Strikes, Even as Crude Exports Climb

Global prices softened after U.S. data showed a crude inventory build.

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
Fuel nozzles are seen at a gas station in Moscow on September 8, 2025. Retail gasoline prices have reached new heights and have been growing faster than overall inflation since August. In Moscow, gasoline prices have approached 67 rubles per liter (US$0.82), and have risen by 3-4 rubles since the beginning of 2025. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP) (Photo by ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images)
A general view shows the Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal (NMT) in the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, Russia May 30, 2018. REUTERS/Natalya Chumakova
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Overview

  • Russia extended a gasoline export ban through year-end and imposed a partial diesel export ban that also covers marine fuel and other gas oils.
  • Analytics firm Ciala estimated nearly 38% of Russian refining capacity offline at September’s end, driving shortages, long queues and rationing in more than 20 regions, including a 30‑liter cap in Crimea.
  • Despite refinery outages, September crude loadings from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk rose about 25% from August, and four-week seaborne exports averaged roughly 3.62 million bpd, the highest since May 2024.
  • India imported about 1.61 million bpd of Russian crude in September—around one-third of its total—slightly below August as refiners diversify sources but keep discounted Urals central to their slate.
  • Oil traded near the mid‑$60s after the EIA reported a 1.8 million-barrel U.S. crude build, while markets track OPEC+ plans for a November quota increase that some analysts expect to be limited.