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Russia Targets 525M Tons of Oil in 2026, Aims for 540M in Medium Term

The government signals incentives to draw investment into Arctic hard-to-recover reserves.

Overview

  • Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said 2025 output held roughly flat at about 516 million tons.
  • Production is projected to rise about 2% next year to 525 million tons under the socioeconomic forecast.
  • Moscow’s medium-term plan envisions lifting annual output to about 540 million tons.
  • Novak said reaching those levels will require additional capital, with policy measures being prepared to spur investment.
  • He described the market as balanced, even as international agencies continue to warn about a potential supply overhang in 2026.