Overview
- Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko said on December 18 that Oreschnik missiles are now on alert in the country and suggested up to ten could be stationed there.
- Researchers Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth identified the former Krytschau-6 airfield near the Russian border as a likely site, citing a new secured rail transfer point and an earth-covered concrete pad.
- Their assessment, which they say aligns broadly with U.S. intelligence, estimates room for only two to three launch vehicles at the location, with rapid construction visible since early August.
- Russian claims describe Oreschnik as hypersonic and nuclear-capable, but analysts note debris links to the RS-26 system, question performance, and report a minimum range around 700 km that could put Kyiv beyond reach from Belarus.
- Skepticism about force size persists, including a Defense Express report that only one operational missile exists, while observers say the move signals Moscow’s response to planned U.S. deployments in Germany and raises nuclear-basing concerns as New START nears expiry.