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Russia Signals 2025 Growth Downgrade as Auto Industry Slumps

Officials now point to near‑zero recent growth, prompting calls for interest‑rate cuts.

Overview

  • Economy Minister Maxim Reschetnikow said the 2.5 percent growth forecast for 2025 will be revised down at the Vladivostok forum.
  • Sberbank chief German Gref reported July–August figures pointing toward growth near zero and urged a significant reduction in the key rate.
  • The auto market has weakened sharply, with AEB citing about a 25 percent drop in January–July passenger‑car demand and roughly 400,000 vehicles stuck in inventories.
  • Producers are cutting hours: Avtovaz warned it may shift to a four‑day week from September 29, while Gaz, Kamaz and Liaz are already on short‑time work and Kamaz reports bus sales down around 60 percent.
  • Chinese brands held about 55 percent of new‑car sales in the first half and are estimated at 60–65 percent by August, as the government drafts ‘alternative employment’ and income‑support plans with details still unclear.