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Russia Set to Lower Growth Outlook as Data Point to Technical Recession

Citing inflation near 8.8% with a key rate at 18%, President Vladimir Putin urges cautious monetary policy and rejects talk of stagnation.

Overview

  • Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikow said the government will cut its 2.5% growth forecast after activity cooled faster than expected.
  • A recent central bank report shows GDP fell for two consecutive quarters, a common marker of a technical recession.
  • Sberbank chief German Gref described the second quarter as technical stagnation, said July and August growth was near zero, and pressed for rate cuts to about 12%.
  • Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum that Russia needs a soft landing, opposing rapid easing while acknowledging strains in some sectors.
  • The policy rate peaked at 21% during the shock and now stands at 18%, with elevated prices and war-focused spending weighing on civilian industries under sanctions.