Overview

• The Ministry of Economic Development published its official socio-economic forecast for 2026 and the 2027–2028 planning period on September 26.
• In the baseline scenario, oil production including gas condensate is put at 516 million tonnes in 2025, rising to 525.2 million in 2026, 532.6 million in 2027 and 540 million in 2028.
• The conservative scenario keeps 2025 at 516 million tonnes and edges up to 517.7 million in 2026, 518.9 million in 2027 and 522.9 million in 2028.
• The figures reiterate the ministry’s April outlook, indicating no revision to the government’s planning assumptions.
• The same document maintains a baseline forecast for petroleum product exports of 125.9 million tonnes in 2025, 132 million in 2026 and 134 million in 2027–2028, with a conservative path declining to 122.3 million by 2028.