Overview

• Analysts reviewing Planet Labs imagery report late-July arrivals of shipping containers, cranes and a protective launcher shelter at the Pankovo site on Novaya Zemlya.
• Two radar-equipped aircraft have been parked at Rogachevo airfield since mid-July and several ships, including the cargo vessel Teriberka, are sailing toward the Barents Sea archipelago.
• Russia issued NOTAMs and maritime warnings defining an August 9–22 launch window but neither U.S. nor Russian authorities have confirmed any test.
• Advocacy groups and experts note the Burevestnik’s troubled record, with only two partial successes in 13 trials and concerns over potential radiation hazards.
• Observers warn a trial timed near the Putin–Trump summit in Alaska could serve as a strategic signal amid expiring nuclear arms-control agreements.