Overview

• Russia intends to launch over 1,000 Shahed/Geran-2 drones per wave on a daily basis by autumn 2025
• Production of Shahed-type drones has increased sevenfold with new manufacturing capacity built in cooperation with Chinese firms
• Ukraine’s air force reports that more than 400 decoy drones were used in a single attack wave to overwhelm radar systems and enable armed drones to penetrate
• Moscow has begun equipping decoy drones with explosive warheads and modifying attack drones to strike civilian areas and undermine morale
• Russian forces are gaining roughly 15 km² per day at a cost of up to 1.3 million casualties and would need about 89 years to occupy all of Ukraine at this pace