Overview

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared in June that the conflict cannot end until NATO withdraws its forces from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, signaling a major escalation of Kremlin objectives
• Under Article Five of the NATO treaty, any attack on a Baltic member would legally require the United States to engage directly against Russian forces
• Lawmakers and analysts are debating whether continued arms shipments to Ukraine offer a more cost-effective deterrent than risking future American casualties in a NATO confrontation
• Ukraine’s dependence on US-supplied equipment—ranging from air defenses to armored vehicles—has created intricate logistics and spare-parts demands that tie American inventories to the conflict
• Integration of Ukraine into NATO’s command and data networks, including systems like Link 16 and American targeting feeds, has deepened US operational commitments and complicated prospects for full disengagement