Overview

• Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told President Vladimir Putin that the official 2025 outlook has been lowered to 1.5% from 2.5%, with the Economy Ministry seeing at least 1.5% growth this year.
• GDP expanded 1.1% year over year in the second quarter, down from about 4% a year earlier, and the central bank projects 1% to 2% growth for 2025.
• The finance ministry reported a budget shortfall of 4.88 trillion rubles from January to July as spending climbed, while oil export revenues have been weakening under sanctions and softer demand.
• The Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 18% after back‑to‑back reductions and lowered its inflation path, expecting a return to 4% in 2026.
• Analysts warn of elevated recession risk, with Capital Economics forecasting just 0.8% growth in 2025 and noting weaker business sentiment and a cooling labor market.