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2w ago

Russia Could Threaten NATO by 2027 if U.S. Withdraws, Study Warns

A new report highlights Russia's military rebuilding efforts and the potential for NATO vulnerabilities if U.S. forces shift focus to Asia.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on May 13, 2025.
A British soldier on exercise in Estonia, on Nato’s eastern flank bordering Russia

Overview

  • The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warns Russia could pose a significant military challenge to NATO, particularly in the Baltic states, by 2027 if a Ukraine ceasefire allows for U.S. withdrawal.
  • Russia is reportedly rebuilding its ground forces, with projections suggesting it could restore pre-2022 equipment levels within two years through refurbishment and new production.
  • Satellite imagery shows Russian troop and hardware buildup near Finland's border, raising concerns about regional security and future operations.
  • European NATO members may need to increase defense spending to 3–5% of GDP and invest in replacing U.S. military assets, including 400 fighter jets and 20 destroyers, to maintain deterrence.
  • President Trump has called for NATO allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and has cast doubt on U.S. commitment to defending allies who fail to meet financial obligations.