Overview

• At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said current data show a cooling economy and suggest Russia stands on the brink of recession.
• The Central Bank cut its key interest rate from 21% to 20% on June 6 to address easing inflation that remains stuck near 10%.
• Western sanctions targeting oil and gas exports and financial channels have strained state revenues and may exhaust the country’s liquid reserves by this fall.
• A labor shortage of some 2.6 million workers by end-2024, driven by military mobilization and brain drain, has compounded inflationary pressures even as high defense spending underpinned growth.
• Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina described the slowdown as a manageable cooling, while Sberbank’s first deputy CEO warned that deeper rate cuts are needed to boost lending and avert a prolonged slump.