Overview
- The rupee swung from near six‑week highs to losses over the week with the currency trading around 94.95 on Wednesday, September 9, as higher Brent crude raised demand for dollars.
- Brent crude climbed toward $99–100 a barrel after renewed US–Iran hostilities and Houthi‑linked attacks raised fears of Middle East supply disruptions and pushed importers to hedge more aggressively.
- Market participants say the Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars in recent sessions to limit sharp depreciation, and strong FCNR‑B deposit inflows and record forex reserves have given it room to intervene.
- Pakistan’s rupee showed only marginal gains while the State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves rose modestly to about $17.12 billion and the finance ministry completed a $3 billion dual‑tranche Eurobond sale this week.
- Higher oil prices will raise import bills and dollar demand for both countries and could keep short‑term volatility high, so upcoming US and Indian inflation prints and the Fed meeting are now key near‑term catalysts to watch.