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Rupee Rebounds After Record Decline Amid India-Pakistan Tensions

Operation Sindoor and geopolitical strain drive rupee volatility, with RBI and Fed interventions shaping market movements.

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Overview

  • India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting nine terror camps in Pakistan and PoK, two weeks after the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians.
  • On May 8, the rupee experienced its worst performance in over two years, closing at 85.71, a 1% drop, before rebounding to 84.54 in early trade following the US Fed's rate pause.
  • Pakistan claimed to have shot down 25 Indian drones, while India reported neutralizing Pakistani missile and drone threats, intensifying cross-border tensions.
  • The Reserve Bank of India is expected to intervene to stabilize the rupee, which remains under pressure due to geopolitical risks and a strong dollar.
  • Global factors, including crude oil price increases and foreign inflows, continue to influence rupee performance alongside domestic and regional developments.