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Rupee Near 90 as Outflows Persist and Offshore Bets Build

Weak foreign flows alongside offshore dollar positioning keep pressure on the currency ahead of policy and trade catalysts.

Overview

  • The rupee closed at 90.05 on Monday after a 90.26 intraday low and slipped to about 90.15 in early Tuesday trade in Mumbai.
  • It remains close to last week’s record 90.42, with one‑month USD/INR NDF points near 25 paisa after touching an eight‑month high of 29 paisa.
  • Foreign investors kept selling, with Rs 655.59 crore of equity outflows on Monday and roughly $1.3 billion net sold so far in December, exchange and NSDL data show.
  • RBI’s backdrop includes a 25 bps repo cut to 5.25% and a $5 billion three‑year USD/INR swap auction set for December 16, while the governor says no exchange‑rate band is targeted.
  • Markets await the US Federal Reserve decision and the start of US–India trade talks on December 10, with some analysts flagging potential flow shifts and BofA projecting INR near 86/USD by end‑2026.