Overview
- In mid-September the rupee showed marginal gains in the interbank market around Rs277.3 per US dollar and quoted about Rs278–279 in Pakistan’s open market.
- The State Bank of Pakistan reported a weekly rise in SBP-held foreign exchange reserves of USD1.21 billion to USD18.33 billion, leaving total liquid reserves at about USD23.72 billion.
- Overseas workers’ remittances remained strong at USD3.656 billion in August, a key source of foreign currency that has helped steady the exchange rate.
- Market forecasters at BMI revised their outlook, pushing expected depreciation into 2027 and lowering their end-2026 projection to roughly Rs278 per dollar based on stronger FX buffers and tight policy.
- The main near-term threat is external: Brent crude trading above USD100 per barrel after Gulf attacks increases import costs and dollar demand, and shifts in global central-bank expectations could quickly reverse the rupee’s modest gains.