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Rupee Holds Near 90 to the Dollar as RBI Readies $5 Billion Swap

Bearish offshore positioning signals lingering pressure on the currency.

Overview

  • The rupee closed at 90.05 on December 8 after slipping to an intra-day low of 90.26, extending weakness from last week’s record 90.42.
  • The Reserve Bank of India scheduled a three-year dollar–rupee swap auction for $5 billion on December 16, following last week’s 25 bps repo cut to 5.25%.
  • RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank does not target any exchange-rate band and lets markets determine the rupee’s level.
  • Traders report long USD bets in the offshore NDF market and continued foreign portfolio selling, with the rupee described as Asia’s worst-performing major currency this year.
  • Market sentiment is pressured by elevated oil and importer dollar demand, while investors watch this week’s Fed decision and India–US trade talks for potential flow cues.