Overview

• The rupee opened Wednesday at 85.58 per dollar and is trading near 85.60–85.70 following modest gains from a softer greenback and easing crude prices.
• Foreign investors pulled out over $1.8 billion from Indian equity and debt markets in June, and the RBI’s offshore FX forward book shrank to $65.2 billion at the end of May.
• Record-high forex reserves have allowed the RBI to smooth volatility, narrowing the intraday trading band to roughly 85.25–85.75 per dollar.
• Bets on a September Fed rate cut have climbed to more than 92 percent, supporting risk appetite and capping sharp declines in the rupee.
• Traders are watching an OPEC+ meeting on July 6 for supply cues and the final stage of US-India trade talks ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline for direction on the currency.