Overview
- The rupee closed near 90.28–90.30 to the dollar for a fourth straight loss after touching 90.50 intraday, leaving it down roughly 53–55 paise since December 30.
- Traders cited safe‑haven demand tied to the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the detention of Nicolás Maduro, alongside importer hedging and foreign outflows that kept dollar demand firm.
- The dollar hit multi‑week highs versus the euro and approached 157 against the yen before paring gains as U.S. ISM manufacturing unexpectedly contracted, with USD/JPY retreating toward 156.55.
- Futures point to roughly two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, keeping the week’s U.S. data docket—ISM, ADP, jobless claims and Friday’s payrolls—at the center of FX positioning.
- The RBI’s $10 billion three‑year dollar‑rupee buy/sell swap on January 13 is viewed as a potential stabilizer, with participants watching the 90.00–90.60 band and resistance near 90.45 alongside U.S.–India trade rhetoric risks.