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2w ago

Runoff Race Too Close to Call as Multiple Polls Put Flávio Slightly Ahead

Rising spontaneous undecided voters, entrenched regional splits, intensified digital attacks leave the Oct. 24 Datafolha poll as the key gauge before voting on Oct. 25

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Overview

  • Multiple reputable polls published Wednesday show a statistical tie in the second round with Palver at 50%–48%, Meio/Ideia at 48%–46% and Quaest at 45%–44% in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro.
  • Quaest’s survey recorded a sharp rise in spontaneous indecision from 7% to 14%, a sign that many voters do not name a preference without prompts and that late movement remains possible.
  • Regional and demographic splits persist: Lula holds strong leads in the Northeast and among lower‑income and older voters while Flávio leads in the South, Southeast, Center‑West, among young voters and evangelicals.
  • Analysts warn the PT’s intensified negative digital campaign after recent debates risks increasing Lula’s rejection rates rather than persuading swing voters because much online alarmism lacks verifiable evidence.
  • A final, large Datafolha poll to be released Oct. 24 will test debate effects and late shifts and could reshape strategies in the last 24 hours before the Oct. 25 vote where small swings and turnout may decide the result.