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Ruble’s Surge Lifts Russian Stocks as Officials Flag Budget Pain

Analysts point to a wide trade surplus, muted import demand plus a softer dollar, with the rate seen near 75–80 through December.

Overview

  • The dollar briefly fell below 75 rubles on December 5 on forex venues, with trading largely holding in the 75–78 range.
  • Russian equities advanced into the week’s close, with the MOEX up 2.04% and the RTS up 3.21% on December 5.
  • The Finance Ministry expanded budget-rule FX sales from December 5, with the Bank of Russia set to sell about 14.5 billion rubles of FX per day this month, up roughly 60% from November.
  • The central bank will lift several transfer limits for individuals from friendly countries on December 8, a measured easing that market watchers say should not upend the currency.
  • Economy Minister Maksim Reshetnikov called the strong ruble a key challenge as lower-than-budgeted Urals prices near $56 and a stronger rate versus a 96.5 budget assumption cut ruble oil and gas revenues; most analysts see firmness through year-end and a possible gradual weakening in 2026.