Overview
- RIA Novosti’s review of exchange data shows the ruble appreciated about 31% against the dollar in 2025, topping global currency gains.
- Central Bank statistics record the official dollar rate falling by 23.45 rubles over 2025, with a peak of 103.44 on January 15 and a trough of 76.09 on December 6.
- Economist Olga Gorbunova outlines three 2026 scenarios, with a base case of 90–95 rubles per dollar, an optimistic 75–83 with sanction relief, and a negative outcome above 100 under worsening geopolitics and weak oil.
- Gorbunova expects gradual easing of the key rate that could approach about 12% by year-end, a path she says would revive lending and investment while reducing the appeal of savings.
- Alpha‑Forex’s Alexander Shneiderman projects moderate ruble weakening starting in the first quarter, keeping early January trade around 75–82 per dollar before drifting toward the upper end of that band.